Boehner says immigration reform off the table for this year

House Speaker John Boehner surprised many analysts last week, saying that passing immigration reform was unlikely before the 2014 midterm elections. The rationale behind this is complicated as noted in this article from the New York Times:

Behind Retreat on Immigration, a Complicated Political Interplay

Why are many Republicans against a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants? This cartoon helps explain part of the reason...

Meanwhile, Senator Chuck Schumer has been looking for ways to get around the roadblocks in the House:

Schumer Offers Long-Shot Option to Skirt House G.O.P. on Immigration

To see an  in-depth look at immigration issues that have come up this week in Europe, check out my Europe blog: http://givenseurope.blogspot.com/2014/02/putting-swiss-vote-in-context-uk-and.html

 

GOP Unveils Immigration Principles, Obama Facing Tough Choices

On Thursday the GOP presented their "Immigration Principles" which are expected to lay the groundwork for legislation going forward - the principles call for legalization but not a path to citizenship:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0

President Obama, who has previously called for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants has said he is open to compromise with the House:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/01/us/obama-hints-he-may-be-open-to-immigration-deal-with-gop.html

"The quandary for Mr. Obama is clear: He has vowed to overhaul immigration in two presidential campaigns, but to make good on the promise, he may have to agree to conditions from House Republicans that will be hard for many Democrats to accept. Mr. Boehner is facing pressure of his own to come up with a plan that will appeal to Hispanic voters."

 

Speaker John A. Boehner’s blueprint may force President Obama to decide whether to abandon a new path to citizenship. Doug Mills/The New York Times

Editorial from the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/opinion/fixing-immigration-in-principle.html?hp&rref=opinion

Jennifer Rubin highlights the challenges that reform proposals will face: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/01/31/immigration-reform-stumbles-on/

 

Immigration Rising on House GOP Agenda - Obama backs off while States charge ahead

Conservative blogger Jennifer Rubin finds cause for optimism on the immigration reform front in the house as leaders begin to stake out positions: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/01/22/positive-signs-for-immigration-reform/

The Hill also reports that the 3rd ranking House Republican is calling for legal status, but not citizenship, for undocumented immigrants:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/01/22/positive-signs-for-immigration-reform/

Meanwhile, President Obama is holding off on taking any executive action to allow the House time to work out a deal: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/01/22/positive-signs-for-immigration-reform/

Meanwhile, states have been taking action on immigration in the absence of a bill passing at the federal level; http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/01/21/states-take-action-on-immigration-as-congress-stalls/

Immigration Texas is back! Stories on the state of play in the House and Europe's concerns over intra-EU migration

The politics of immigration hasn't changed much since my last post in July.  The House of Representatives has not taken action on the Senate's comprehensive bill, and the current expectation is that some action might be taken in the Spring:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/09/us/politics/house-republicans-preparing-plan-for-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is joining with business interests, labor and immigration advocates to push for action by the House: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/01/08/us-chamber-of-commerce-immigration-election-tea-party/4372125/

In Europe, immigration from Bulgaria and Romania has raised issues about intra-EU migration:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/british-welcome-of-immigrants-wears-thin/2014/01/07/25f2b560-7568-11e3-bc6b-712d770c3715_story.html

The issue has impacted German politics as well as in Britain:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304347904579308380486793934
But some say the issue has been overblown:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/cities-say-southeastern-european-immigrants-not-a-massive-problem-a-942663.html#ref=nl-international

Senate passes amended reform bill -- Obama and Bush (!) Push House to take up the Senate Bill

Immigration Texas has been on hiatus for the last month, but immigration legislation has moved forward, starting with the passage of the Senate bill, amended to appease Senators who felt the border security measures needed to be more stringent.  However, GOP members of the House of Representatives voiced their displeasure with the Senate bill, even before the final vote:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/26/us-usa-immigration-idUSBRE95P0ZX20130626


Final passage came on June 27th with a vote of 68 to 32, with 14 Republicans backing the bill:


http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/27/politics/immigration
In the last few weeks, House Speaker John Boehner has repeatedly said that the House would not take up the Senate bill, and would come up with it's own, and today, GOP House members met to discuss how they would move forward. Some media outlets have gone so far as to say that immigration reform is dead in the House, but that seems to be hyperbole for now as argued by John Ward of the Huffington Post "Immigration Doom And Gloom Is Giving John Boehner Some Room To Operate ":
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/10/immigration-john-boehner_n_3573669.html

My own expectation is that the House will work towards passing legislation to give a path to citizenship for DREAMers, a STEM bill that will increase visas for skilled immigrants and allow those who earned advanced degrees to stay in the U.S., and of course, border security. Of course, the House has already voted to stop Obama's DACA executive order: http://www.thonline.com/news/national_world/article_86eea608-45fa-562f-84a7-66e5414dfb6e.html and a DREAM act was supposed to be introduced by democrats in the House earlier this year: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/07/dream-act_n_2639187.html (apparently this did not happen) but this legislation would give House Republicans a way to deal with one of the more sympathetic groups of undocumented immigrants, without having to deal with a broader "amnesty."

In the meantime, President Obama is pushing the House to take up the Senate bill ("or similar legislation"):
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/10/us-usa-immigration-obama-idUSBRE96908Z20130710
and former President Bush called for a "positive resolution to the debate":
http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/10/politics/bush-immigration-speech/index.html?hpt=po_c1

Discussion in Houston on immigration reform and Senator Cornyn pushes border security amendment

Zocalo Public Square held a discussion on the impact of immigration reform in Houston at Rice University last week: http://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2013/06/07/immigration-doesnt-bother-houston/events/the-takeaway/


The wide-ranging discussion focused on the differences in the immigration debate between Texas and Washington, and that Texas has generally been welcoming to immigrants, despite being a conservative state.

As the Gang of Eight's immigration reform bill works its way through the Senate, Texas Senator John Cornyn has proposed an amendment (RESULTS) that would increase requirements for border security before granting a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.  In an editorial in USA Today, Cornyn emphasizes the need to guarantee a secure border: http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/06/09/immigration-border-security-sen-john-cornyn/2406301/


Senate Majority Leader has called the amendment a "poison pill" and other Democratic senators have rejected the amendment, with Reid saying “We have a senator from Texas, Senator Cornyn who wants to change border security, a trigger, saying that it has to be a 100 percent border security, or [there will] be no bill. That’s a poison pill,” Reid said on Univision’s Al Punto."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/harry-reid-john-cornyn-immigration-bill-92463.html#ixzz2VpYjve18

The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote on the immigration bill for Monday afternoon. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/06/09/senate-house-immigration-benefits/2385449/

In the House, the issue of access to healthcare has created divisions in the set of negotiators who hope to complete a bill in the next week or two: 

 

"But there is a bloc of House GOP members -- including 2012 vice presidential candidate Rep Paul Ryan of Wisconsin -- that is pushing for a similar bipartisan approach that the Senate is taking up this week, which includes a path to citizenship. The group represents a minority within the House GOP conference.

 

That bipartisan effort suffered a significant setback last week. A working group, similar to the Senate's "Gang of Eight," has been on the verge of unveiling legislation for months, according to multiple sources. But Rep. Raul Labrador, one of the four GOP members in the group, abruptly dropped out. Like Rubio, who is needed to attract Republican votes in the Senate, reform backers hoped Labrador would play the same role in the House.

 

Labrador was frustrated he couldn't get support for his detailed proposal laying out how undocumented workers in the U.S. would be barred from any taxpayer-funded health care benefits."

http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/10/politics/immigration-house/index.html

Immigration reform moves forward in the Senate and a discussion on the impact of immigration reform in Texas

The Senate immigration reform bill crafted by the "Gang of Eight" survived committee hearings mostly intact, with few amendments allowed to alter the carefully negotiated bill. Despite Senator Schumer's confidence that the bill will pass by July 4th, and Harry Reid's statements that the bill can avoid a filibuster, others, including Marco Rubio, are concerned that the bill doesn't have enough votes to make it to a floor vote.

 

Meanwhile, many Senators on both sides of the aisle are expressing concerns about the border security provisions in the bill and Texas' John Cornyn is preparing amendments to overhaul border security and other sections of the bill.

 

Zocalo Public Square is highlighting the issue of immigration reform in Texas today with a discussion online, and at Rice University on Thursday, June 6th:

 

A Republican Stronghold at a Crossroads: How might immigration reform change Texas politics?

 

Including my contribution:

Terri E. Givens

Following in California’s footsteps                

Immigration reform will have a significant impact on Texas politics in the long term. If the path to citizenship remains in the legislation, it could lead to large numbers of currently undocumented immigrants eventually becoming citizens. The current efforts of political organizers to mobilize the Latino vote in Texas will be critical, in order to develop a constituency which understands the power of the vote and can put forward viable candidates. Even without a path to citizenship, demographics in Texas are changing rapidly.

The changes which occurred in California politics in the late 1990s and early 2000s are instructive for Texas politicians. I lived in California at that time and saw the mobilization of the Latino vote after the passage of Prop. 187. As noted in a New York Times article from last summer the Republican Party in California holds no statewide offices. It's interesting to note that we have the opposite situation here in Texas, with Republicans holding all statewide offices. However, the Democratic party, in particular the new organization Battleground Texas, is pouring significant resources into the state in a bid to make Texas a swing state by the next decade. We have already seen some changes, as in the lack of harsh immigration control measures being put forward during this year's legislative session. It's clear that many politicians in Texas will have to pay attention to issues that are of concern to a changing constituency, and politicians like the Castro brothers from San Antonio may be harbingers of a new political order in the state.

Terri E. Givens is associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin. More information at www.immigrationtexas.org.

 

 

 

 



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