Latinos and the 2012 Election – Lessons from 1996
Terri E. Givens
It’s mid-September and the presidential campaigns
are moving into high gear. It is clear
that both parties are trying to court the Latino vote (acknowledging the
diversity within this category), with Latino politicians playing a prominent
role in both the Republican and Democratic conventions. The latest polls show that President Obama is
maintaining a strong lead over Mitt Romney among Latinos. Vice President Joe
Biden told the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s audience, “Ladies and gentlemen, you are about to become, and already
have, the most powerful force in American politics,”
at their recent gala. Despite this, neither candidate has talked much about immigration
– not necessarily a top issue in comparison to the economy, but still an important
to many Latinos. This summer President Obama announced Deferred Action for
Childhood Arrivals, which falls far short of what is called for in the DREAM
Act. Mitt Romney mainly played to his base early in the campaign and came out
against an amnesty for the millions of undocumented immigrants in the country,
while supporting high-skilled immigration. Despite the fact that comprehensive
immigration reform has been a bi-partisan issue, it’s clear that it will take
more motivation on the part of Republicans in Congress to move forward
legislation that will address the main problems with our immigration system.
Like many immigrant groups before them, Latinos are
moving into a position to influence elections in many states beyond places like
Texas, California and New York, where they already have strong influence. I was in graduate school in California in the
mid-1990s when then Republican Governor Pete Wilson pushed forward an
anti-immigrant agenda with Proposition 187 which would have denied undocumented
immigrants and their children welfare benefits and access to public schools.
Wilson was re-elected in 1994 and Prop 187 passed with nearly 60% of the
vote. Much like today’s SB1070, it seemed
like a restrictionist tide was heading across the country. Pete Wilson was unable to turn his success in
California to success as a presidential candidate, but the Republican platform
in 1996 called for legislation that would bar the children of undocumented
immigrants from public schools.
However, these restrictive moves prompted increased
naturalizations, helped by President Clinton’s Citizenship USA initiative in
1995, and subsequent increased voter registration in the Latino community.
Mexican Americans in particular voted in record numbers in the 1996
presidential election. Clinton won
handily, including in California, and naturalizations continued to increase,
particularly as permanent residents were being restricted from getting certain
welfare benefits under welfare reform. George W. Bush was much more
conciliatory towards immigrants, and worked much harder at getting the Latino
vote than Bob Dole had in 1996. Once he
became president, he was on course to work with Mexican President Vicente Fox
on immigration issues, but 9/11 put an immediate stop to those efforts.
Latino voters were successful in shifting the agenda
on immigration in 1996. With the wave of
anti-immigrant bills being passed in state legislatures over the past few
years, the question is whether the Latino vote will once again have an
impact. As with Proposition 187, most of
the components of SB 1070 have been found unconstitutional. In California,
Governor Jerry Brown is pursuing a much more immigrant friendly agenda and is considering
whether to sign the TRUST
Act
which would limit local law enforcement cooperation with federal authorities
through the Secure Communities program. In Texas, Republicans have been much
more conciliatory on the immigration issue, while promoting the careers of
Republicans like Senate candidate Ted Cruz.
Although some are arguing that the Latino vote won’t grow much, if at
all in the November
election it’s often at the margins where the vote matters,
particularly in swing states like Iowa. Turnout will not only have an impact on the
current election, it will have a major impact on the direction of policy for
many years to come.
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